Facts and Challenges of Population Decline in the Caribbean.

José Miguel Guzman Molina, ICF Macro DHS
Sabrina Juran, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

Caribbean countries are increasingly affected by climate change, including hurricanes, sea level rise, and volcanic eruptions, which pose ongoing challenges to resources, infrastructure, and human well-being. Environmental sustainability is a central concern for these nations. Moreover, several countries have undergone significant demographic shifts due to continuous emigration and sustained below-replacement fertility. This shift includes population decline and rapid ageing, with profound socio-economic implications. This study analyzes the causes driving this demographic transformation through a mixed-methods approach integrating quantitative analysis of demographic data from national statistics and the data from UN Population Prospects 2024 with qualitative assessments of policy responses and stakeholders' direct consultations. The research aims to identify the short and long-term effects of population decline on economic stability and human capital, gender equity, demands for social services in four countries already experiencing population decrease (Cuba, Dominica, Jamaica, and Montserrat). The expected outcome is a framework with policy options, ensuring demographic resilience, promoting sustainable development, and ensuring inclusive social policies. This research will help Caribbean countries to proactively navigate population decline and shifts, by informing policymakers and stakeholders about appropriate and effective strategies to manage demographic transitions, moving beyond fear-driven narratives to address the realities of their demographic transitions.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Fertility, International Migration, Population Policies

See extended abstract.