Guns, Germs and Sovereign Sheriffs: How Local Rebellion against Public Health Initiatives Shapes Population Health.

Brayden Dawson, The Ohio State University
Jack Wippell, The Ohio State University
Taylor June, The Ohio State University

Recent literature identifies an association between sub-national (state) democratic backsliding in the United States and mortality (Montez et al. 2023). Yet, little is known about whether similar dynamics around diverging policies occur at more local levels. In recent years, several sheriffs have made headlines for refusing to enforce COVID-19 mandates and gun control legislation. Using a unique dataset that tracks sheriff refusals, weekly COVID-19 deaths, and annual firearm fatalities, we use fixed-effects models to examine the potentially detrimental effects of these local rebellions on population health. Our preliminary findings suggest an association between a sheriff’s refusal to enforce COVID-19 mandates and the COVID-19 death rate. However, the association emerges through as a positive moderation of later waves of the pandemic, and early differences between rebel and non-rebel counties are minimal. These preliminary results shed light on how local deviations from state public health initiatives might shape population health outcomes, at least for the specific case of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on firearm fatalities has already been collected, and current data collection involves the completion of the dataset on sheriff's refusals to enforce gun control legislation.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Population, Shocks and Pandemics, Population Policies

See extended abstract.