Estimating Net Migration by Age and Sex from the Human Mortality Database

Tianyu Shen, Australian National University
Qing Guan, Australian National University
Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Australian National University

The demographic balance equation combines the basic demographic components (fertility, migration, and mortality) to calculate population growth. If one of the values in the equation is unknown, it can be derived from the other components given the perfect mathematical relation within the balance equation. A similar relation is observed in cohorts at the age-specific level, where population counts at a younger age are related to population counts at an older age by the mortality and migration observed between those ages. This existing perfect mathematical relation at the age-specific level can be used to estimate net migration from population and mortality counts. We present net migration estimates by age and sex for populations available in the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Age-sex patterns and time trends of net migration are analysed across countries. Recent decades show mostly smooth patterns across age, though some populations exhibit irregularities. We also contrast our HMD net migration results with estimates from World Population Prospects 2024, the Integrated Modelling of European Migration project and Abel and Cohen’s international migration flow estimates. This comparison reveals limitations in both our approach and other estimates.

Keywords: International Migration, Data and Methods

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