The Old-Age Demographic Transition across the Globe

Cassio M. Turra, Demography Department, Cedeplar, UFMG
Fernando Fernandes, Demography Department, Cedeplar, UFMG
Eduardo Rios-Neto, UFMG

This study investigates the global old-age demographic transition and its driving factors, focusing on populations aged 60 and over. Utilizing data from the United Nations' 2024 Revision of Population Estimates and Projections, we examine demographic changes over 150 years (1950–2100) across 237 countries. We employ the balancing equation of population change to decompose growth rates according to entries into older age groups (analogous to births), deaths, and net migration. Additionally, we apply the method of Preston, Himes, and Eggers (1989) to analyze changes in the mean age of older populations as functions of cohort size, death, and migration rates. Preliminary results indicate accelerated aging among the elderly. Globally, the mean age of individuals aged 60 and over is projected to increase from 70.6 years in 2024 to 75.0 years by 2100. This shift is attributed to smaller younger cohorts entering the 60+ age group and mortality shifting to older ages. Migration has minimal impact on these trends. These demographic changes have significant economic implications, including increased demand for healthcare, long-term care, and adjustments in pension systems. We will further detail these aspects and assess the economic consequences for selected countries using estimates from the National Transfer Accounts project.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Older Adults and Intergenerational Relations, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.