Impacts of Sex Preference on Fertility: The Case of Bangladesh

Jane Menken, University of Colorado Boulder
Varnitha Kurli, University of Colorado Boulder
Mohammad Nizam Khan, Social and Economic Survey Research institute, Qatar University
Brian Houle, Australian National University

We revisit the topic of sex preference - much discussed in the past and surprisingly relevant today to understanding fertility change. Over three decades ago, Muhuri and Menken found child survival was higher for the first two boys and first girl in a Bangladesh family. They suggested there may be “a deep-rooted set of preferences …that contradicted notions of desire for large numbers – of either sons or daughters” that contributed to the decline in fertility in the late 20th century. In this paper, we test whether progressing to a 3rd or 4th child is influenced by the composition of the sibling set and also by maternal education. Using WFS and DHS data by period, we find that more educated women are less likely to progress, women with 2 girls and no boys are most likely to have a 3rd child, and women with 2 boys and 1 girl are least likely to have a 4th child. Innovative counterfactual analyses show the magnitude of the effects: were all women to have the lowest probabilities by sibling composition or by education, overall fertility would be lower by 2-5% and by 4-9% if women had the lowest parity progression by both sibling composition and education.

Keywords: Fertility, Family Planning and Contraception, Gender Dynamics, Population and Development

See paper.