A Neglected Phenomenon in Migration Research – Return Migration: Explorations based on Household Surveys in China

Qi Zhang, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Richard E. Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina
Jack Preisser, Carleton College

Rural labor migration is a major aspect of socio-economic change, especially in developing regions. This study examines return migration, focusing on individuals who move back to rural areas after migrating to urban or other regions. Using data from rural areas of two provinces of China, we examine factors at multiple levels that may influence decision-making of return migration for out-migrants, drawing on current theoretical approaches including Human Capital, Push-Pull, New Economics of Labor Migration, Aspirations/Capabilities, etc. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models analyze data from household surveys in 2014-2015, incorporating the hierarchical nature of the data. The sample comprises 997 individuals (out-migrants) from 523 households, with 23% returned by the time of the survey. Preliminary results suggest that individuals who are male, married and less educated are more likely to return, while households more isolated from roads or at higher elevations have lower return rates due to poorer accessibility and living conditions. Significant expected effects are also found for destination distance and city size. A second major goal of this study is methodological, to explore different specifications of the model with different variables and time-frames. Finally, we will conclude with questionnaire design recommendations for future studies.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Internal Migration and Urbanization, Human Capital, Education, and Work, Multi-level modeling

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