Drought and Contraceptive Use: Does Environmental Stress Lead to Delayed Pregnancy in Kenya?

Kathryn Grace, University of Minnesota
Ankit Sikarwar, INED

Climate change and environmental stressors, such as drought, are increasingly recognized as influencing human health and behavior, including reproductive decisions. However, little is known about how drought intensity and duration affect delayed pregnancies through contraceptive use. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between drought conditions and fertility behavior among women in Kenya. Using high-resolution monthly data on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we apply multi-criteria techniques to capture both drought intensity and longevity. These measures are linked with contraceptive use calendar data from the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which provide reproductive histories for women over the preceding five years and geolocations of sampled clusters. In addition to drought indicators, we incorporate spatial factors such as livelihood zones, rural-urban classification, and environmental variables like vegetation health (NDVI), rainfall, and temperature. We will also include appropriate socio-economic variables in our model to explore how the impact varies according to differences in socio-economic conditions. Multilevel Logistic regression models will be used to analyze the data. The results will shed light on whether drought leads to increased contraceptive use, indicating a potential delay in pregnancy. This study provides a critical framework for analyzing the impact of environmental stress on reproductive health decisions.

Keywords: Population, Environment, and Climate Change, Fertility, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data, Population and Development

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