Political Party Preference and Childbearing in Western Europe

Erik Carlsson, University of Turku

Earlier studies on the association between political preferences and fertility have used the left/right scale, liberal/conservative attitudes, or similar as explanatory variables. These single-dimension approaches do not capture the multidimensionality (i.e. economic left/right, social liberalism/conservatism, nationalism, green issues, etc.) of European party systems. This study uses data from round 9 of the European Social Survey collected in 2018-2020 to examine the association between the party family of the party that the respondent voted for in the last national election and the respondent’s total number of children at age 40. Analyses distinguish between six party families: left socialist, social democratic, ecologist, liberal/centrist, conservative/Christian democratic, and nationalist right. Results show that the relationship between political party preference and fertility varies considerably between European countries. In Finland, Norway, Portugal, and Spain, voters for parties in left-leaning party families have significantly fewer children than voters for parties in right-leaning party families. In the Netherlands and Switzerland, voters for conservative/Christian democratic parties have significantly more children than the respective national averages. In other countries, such as Denmark, fertility differences between voters of different party families are very small.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Fertility, Population, Environment, and Climate Change

See paper.