Demography’s End-of-History Moment: Are Population Projections Losing Its Foresight Capacity for Policymaking in Post-Transition Countries?

Rossella Icardi, Joint Research Centre, European Commission
Philipp Ueffing, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Fabrizio Natale, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Nicholas Gailey, University of Vienna

Population projections are important for policymaking in a world facing demographic shifts. However, in post-demographic transition countries, the accuracy and relevance of these projections are challenged by uncertainties in fertility trends and the increasing importance of migration as a driver of demographic change. This paper argues that demographic theory, particularly in the context of long-term low fertility, is facing significant challenges in anticipating future population dynamics. By analysing global population projections and results of a global survey of demographic expert opinions, the study highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of demographic drivers and the limitations of current modelling approaches. The findings suggest that while population projections remain valuable tools, their capacity to inform policymaking in post-transition countries may be diminishing, necessitating the development of new theoretical frameworks and innovative modelling techniques.

Keywords: Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Population and Development, Fertility

See extended abstract.