East Africa’s fertility and contraceptive use: Analysis of 1950-2100 to inform the Demographic Dividend Processes

Allen Kabagenyi, Makerere University, Institute of Statistics And Applied Economics,
Vincent Kayemba, Makerere University
Paulino Ariho, Makerere University
Gideon Rutaremwa, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)

Globally, fertility levels have been declining over the past decades from an average of 4.9 children per woman recorded in 1950 to a more recent estimate of 2.3 children born per woman in 2022 with variations recoded in parts of the world including the East African Region. That is Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda have the highest fertility levels at 5.1, 4.7 and 4.6 children per woman. Using UNDESA and UDHS data, we re-examine the retrospective and prospective fertility patterns and the possibility of harnessing the demographic dividend. Further we explore the contraceptive use over the years and its impact on fertility critical in accelerating the pace of fertility decline in the East African region. The results show the age-specific fertility rates reveal that for almost five decades (1950-2000) fertility levels in East Africa have been driven by women aged between 20-24 years. The fertility rates presented a youthful population structure, evidenced by a broad-based population pyramid. There is an upsurge in the working-age population ranging from 1.1 million to over 45 million persons. There is a strategic window of opportunity for East African nations to drive economic transformation and harness the dividend.

Keywords: Population and Development

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