Impact of Housing Affordability on Fertility Decisions and Childbearing Behaviour in Australia

Rebecca Valenzuela, Australian Institute of Family Studies

Housing affordability is an increasingly influential factor in shaping fertility decisions in Australia. As housing costs consume a growing share of household income—particularly among renters and younger adults—the financial burden can delay or deter childbearing. Conversely, homeownership may offer a sense of stability that supports earlier family formation. Understanding how these dynamics unfold over time is essential for informing housing and family policy. This study investigates the relationship between housing affordability and fertility timing using duration modelling techniques, including survival analysis, fixed effects panel regression, and Cox proportional hazards modelling. Drawing on longitudinal data from the HILDA survey, we examine how variations in housing cost burdens and tenure types influence the probability and timing of childbearing. The use of fixed effects controls for unobserved individual heterogeneity, while Cox regression allows us to model the hazard of birth events over time. Together, these methods provide a robust framework for assessing how economic pressures in the housing market shape reproductive behaviour across different demographic and geographic groups.

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  Presented in Session 120. Managing Fertility in Contemporary Australia: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities