Beyond Growth Rates: Advancing Tonga's Population Estimation Methods Through Component-Based Intercensal Estimations

Nasili Fa'anunu, Tonga Statistics Department

Population is a country's most valuable resource. Beyond mere statistics, people are the source of creativity, innovation, and productive capacity that powers sustainable growth and shapes a nation's future success. This is why accurate population estimation is so crucial. This presentation documents Tonga National Statistics Office's transition from traditional census-based growth rate estimations to a more robust component-based approach for intercensal population estimates. While previous methodologies relied solely on an age and period invariant growth trajectories, our new framework incorporates the dynamic factors that influence population change—births, deaths, and net migration patterns. This methodological shift enables more frequent, accurate, and responsive demographic data between census years, providing critical support for evidence-based policy development, resource allocation, and national planning initiatives. The presentation will outline our implementation process, methodological challenges encountered, preliminary results, and how these enhanced population estimates strengthen Tonga's capacity for demographic analysis and strategic planning. By sharing our experience in developing these more robust estimation techniques, we hope to contribute to regional statistical capacity building and highlight the value of timely, accurate population data for small island developing states.

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  Presented in Session 100. Pacific Demography 1