Mortality Transition in Pacific Island Countries & Territories (PICTs): 1950-2023

Yohannes Kinfu, Secretariat of the Pacific Community

Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) are diverse nations spread across the Pacific Ocean. The available but fragmented data paint a picture of a region at a critical juncture, facing the triple burden of the high prevalence of non-communicable diseases, the effects of climate change, and an increasingly uncertain demographic future. Yet, there is a significant lack of comprehensive and systematic studies on the demography of this region. This paper aims to fill this gap by systematically analysing long-term mortality trends across all 22 PICTs. Preliminary findings reveal that similar to global trends, life expectancy in the region has increased significantly over the past 75 years. In 1950, life expectancy at birth was less than 42.5 years; by 2015, it had risen to over 66 years and increased to 68 years by 2023. However, neither the speed nor the age pattern of the mortality transition was uniform across the region. The Polynesian region exhibits the highest average life expectancy, followed by Micronesia, with the Melanesia sub-region falling far behind. By decomposing the changes in life expectancy by age and causes of death, the paper provides fresh insights into epidemiological transitions and improving life expectancy in these populations.

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  Presented in Session 100. Pacific Demography 1