Population Prospects in Vanuatu: Results from National and Sub-National Projections and Implications.

Salome Atnelo, Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics

Accurate and timely population projections are essential for national development planning, resource allocation, and evidence-based policymaking. This is even more crucial for a small developing island state like Vanuatu, where the population is more vulnerable to climate change, faces rapidly changing demographic trends and is dispersed across various islands, making planning for service delivery a constant challenge for the country. Long-term national and sub-national population projections were generated using a combination of techniques and various data sources. The subnational projections were developed based on historical growth trajectories, ensuring internal consistency with the total national population developed using the cohort-component method. The component-based projections were derived using fertility and mortality assumptions from mathematical models and migration data from administrative data. Preliminary results show that the future size of the country’s population and the population of its subnational units, while expected to grow, will be significantly influenced by internal and international migration trends.

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  Presented in Session 100. Pacific Demography 1