Mortality Variation across U.S. States

Yuan Peng, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Megan Cassidy Chiang, Stanford University
Wenyun Zuo, Stanford University
Zhen Guo, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Shripad Tuljapurkar, Stanford University

It is well known that there is considerable variation across the US, especially in life expectancy at birth. We examine age-specific mortality differences between states by testing and deploying powerful analytical methods to probe the contributions to life expectancy metrics, the inequality in the age at death, and the number of per-capita deaths. Below are our major findings. The youngest age group (0-5) showed similar mortality and population proportions across states. Differences in life expectancy at birth were driven by the middle-aged (6-64) and elderly (65+), with the middle-aged contributing more than expected and the elder's role increasing over time. Lifespan variation gaps were mainly caused by differences in middle-aged deaths. Differences in population aging contributed a lot to the gaps in per-capita death rates. Racial composition was a critical factor to mortality variation, with states having a Black population over 20% showing worse mortality improvement. The mortality gradient by income percentile was substantial and has become more noticeable over time. These findings offer clearer guidance for policymakers in addressing mortality gaps.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Decomposition analysis, Mathematical demography , Data and Methods

See extended abstract.