The Structure of Chinese Families Who Lost Their Only Child: Simulation Analysis Based on the Life-Tables

Qing Han, Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University Insti...
Lu Han, Institute for Population and Development Studies School of Public Policy and Administration Xi’an Jiaotong University
Quanbao Jiang, Institute for Population and development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University

Based on the national population census in 2020 in China, we use life tables and probability method to analyse the indices related to the structure of shidu family that who lost their only child in different death orders, and explore the impact of parents’ age at childbirth and the age gap between father and mother on these indicators. The results show that the 54th to 59th year after the child birth is the peak period when the shidu family turns into a single-parent family. The cumulative probability of death order father-son-mother ultimately is the highest among all death orders. As parents’ age at childbirth rises, the cumulative probability of every death order in the shidu family falls, the age of son at death and the duration of marriage decrease, yet the survival years of parents after losing the child do not change. As the age gap between the couple rises, the cumulative probability of the death order mother-son-father in the shidu family decreases sharply, and the age of son at death decreases. Meanwhile, the duration of marriage goes down, and the years that mother survive alone goes up, whereas the years that father survive do not.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Mathematical demography , Population and Development, Census data

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