Recursive and Stable Population Models for the Genetic and Cultural Transmission of Obesity

Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Nestor Aldea-Ramos, CSIC
Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, University of California, Los Angeles

We extend a classic population genetics model to study trajectories of phenotypes transmitted via genetic and vertical cultural inheritance. We focus on adult obesity, a phenotype known to be partially genetically inherited and strongly influenced by parental household characteristics. In our model, genetic inheritance is regulated by the impact of inherited allelic variants embedded in a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI whereas cultural inheritance is regulated by effects and transmission of a cultural risk score (CRS) for BMI. We assume imperfect transmission fidelity and both genetic and cultural transmission depend on stochastic components. The model accounts for assortative mating, differential fertility by phenotype, and the magnifying (attenuating) effects of gene-environment interactions. We study formal properties of the model, similarities (and differences) between it and the discrete generalized stable population model and, finally, show its utility as a tool for designing policy interventions to alter the course of the obesity epidemic.

Keywords: Biodemography and genetics, Health and Morbidity, Mathematical demography , Simulation

See extended abstract.