Causes of Death Inequality and Diversity Determines Progression in Mortality Transition: An Empirical Test to Evaluate the Rise in Life Expectancy in 45 Countries across 23 GBD Regions of the World

Suryakant Yadav, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
T R. Dilip, Consultant, WHO, Geneva
Perianayagam Arokiasamy, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Solveig Cunningham, Emory University
Udaya Shankar Mishra, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum
Pravat Bhandari, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Neha Shri, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Chandan Kumar, International Institute for Population Sciences, India
Himanshu Jaiswal, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Developed nations have shown high e0 on account of low G0 and low H and F indices. LMICs and LICs showed an increase in e0 mainly contributed by a reduction in the burden of infectious diseases; however, with increasing causes-of-death diversity. The study aims to examine the causes-of-death inequality and diversity for assessing the progression in mortality transition in HICs versus LMICs versus LICs. Age-cause-specific decomposition of life expectancy at birth (e0), Gini coefficient at birth (G0), Shannon entropy (H) and Fractionalization index (F) by sex were performed using mortality rates of highest and lowest income countries in 23 GBD regions selecting 45 countries retrieved from the GBD (2021) study. The HICs of America, Asia, Australasia and Europe gained momentum in e0 and G0, attributable to a single huge reduction in cardiovascular diseases attaining a low causes-of-death diversity. On the other hand, LMICs of Asia, Oceania, North and South America, and Africa show a large reduction in infectious diseases for their pace in mortality transition. LICs of Africa showed a large improvement in infants and children but not in adults. Adult mortality is crucial for LICs and LMICs to pace with HICs to lower causes-of-death diversity and pace in e0.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Decomposition analysis, Spatial Demography, Health and Morbidity

See paper.