How Climate Shocks Shape Fertility Choices: Insights from the UK Household Longitudinal Study

Irene Frageri, Department of Statistical Sciences - University of Bologna
Ann M. Berrington, University of Southampton
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Grounded in experiential learning theory, our research explores how direct personal experiences with climate hazards influences individuals’ intentions regarding childbearing. We match the UK household longitudinal study data from the "Understanding Society" (2009-2022) with high-resolution climatic data to analyse changes in fertility intentions pre- and post-exposure to climate-related hazards—specifically floods and heatwaves. Our analysis incorporates two-way fixed effects estimators accounting for socio-economic heterogeneities, spatial proximity, and temporal proximity of extreme weather events. We hypothesize that individuals exposed to such events will show reduced fertility intentions, with more pronounced effects among socio-economically vulnerable groups and those experiencing the events within a short distance from their residence. This study contributes to novel insights into the relationship between personal experience with climate change and fertility intentions, filling a gap in existing research on how direct exposure to climate-related events affects reproductive choices.

Keywords: Fertility, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data, Longitudinal studies , Population, Environment, and Climate Change

See extended abstract.