The “4-2-1” Family Structure: Simulation Based on the Family Multi-State Life Table

Lu Han, Institute for Population and Development Studies School of Public Policy and Administration Xi’an Jiaotong University
Qing Han, Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University Insti...
Quanbao Jiang, Xi'an Jiaotong University

The number of “4-2-1” family gradually increases with the decline in China’s fertility. Based on life tables and probability method, we mainly examine survival probabilities and existence durations for the 30 family structures evolved from “4-2-1” family with the national population census in 2020. The results show that four grandparents, two parents and one child are likely to coexist for 16 years after the birth of child. When the child reaches 9, the grandparents are all aged over 60, and the probability of all seven survival is 0.79. The survival probability of 4-2-1 family structure declines sharply by the age of child. The survival probabilities for other family structure evolved from 4-2-1 family first rise and then fall by the age of child, and those are higher for family structures that both parents and children survive. When the child reaches 35, all four grandparents will have died, and parents are aged over 60. Specifically, the expectancy of the life of 0-2-1 family structure is 7.57 years, and the survival probability of this structure peaks at 0.45 when the child is 44. It barely exists that the parents support four older adults or the child support five or six older adults.

Keywords: Families, Unions and Households, Mathematical demography , Census data, Population and Development

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