Trends and Determinants of Cause of Death Diversity in Uganda: 2013 - 2021

Doreen Nabukalu
Milly Marston, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Jim Todd, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

Background Several studies have explored changes in the leading causes of death (CoD) over time. However, there is little data on CoD diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa. The main aim is to examine the trends, and drivers of CoD diversity using data from a Health and Demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in Uganda from 2013 to 2021. Method Using routinely updated longitudinal data from an HDSS in Rakai, Uganda, we computed annual life table age-standardized cause-specific mortality rates. CoD diversity was measured using the Fractionalization index(F) with decomposition techniques used to examine the drivers of CoD diversity between 2013 and 2021. Expected findings The overall age-standardized mortality rate per 100000 pyo in 2013 and 2021 was 349.98 and 113.1 in females and 499.74 and 257.79 in males respectively. The leading CoD in 2013 was HIV/AIDS/TB in females and non-communicable CoD in males. In 2021, in both females and males, non-communicable CoD dominated. F was lowest in males(0.32) in 2013 and highest in females(0.93) in 2021. Conclusion So far, our results imply a more homogenous CoD profile in males in 2013 compared to females while in 2021 it is more of a heterogenous CoD profile, making it complicated for policymakers.

Keywords: Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, Decomposition analysis, Longitudinal studies

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