Mortality above Age 105. New Data, New Models

Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
France Meslé, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Svitlana Poniakina, Insitut National D'Études Démographiques
Laurent Toussaint, Independent consultant
Jacques Vallin, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Jean-Marie Robine, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)

Understanding mortality at extreme ages, such as 105 and older, is crucial for testing evolutionary theories on human longevity and aging, and for determining potential biological limits to human lifespan. However, accurately assessing mortality risks for this age group is challenging due to limited data, incomplete records, and unreliable age reporting. To address these issues, the International Database on Longevity provides validated mortality data for individuals aged 105 and older from 13 countries. This extended abstract presents preliminary findings based on updated data from France and outlines plans to compare these results with updated data from England & Wales. We employ both parametric and non-parametric models to refine the characterization of mortality patterns at extreme ages. Our findings indicate that the Gompertz model better describes mortality beyond age 105 compared to the exponential model, showing no evidence of a mortality plateau. Future analyses will investigate sex differences, cohort-specific mortality risks, and emerging time trends, while new non-parametric methods will be used to handle right truncation and fully utilize the dataset.

Keywords: Mortality and Longevity, Data and Methods

See extended abstract.