Transitions into Severe Health-Dependent State Among Thailand's Elderly: A Multistate Analysis for a Dynamic Study and Projection From 2007 to 2030 Using Cross-Sectional Datasets

Natthachanaphong Teanworakoon, College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University
Orawan Prasitsiriphon, Chulalongkorn University
Pariyakorn Pansuk, College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University

As life expectancy in Thailand increases and the elderly population continues to expand, late-life health issues have become a key concern for population policy. This study examines the dynamics of transitions into worse health statuses among Thailand’s elderly, focusing on shifts from a normal state to a moderate state, and from a moderate state to a severe (health-dependent) state. Using 5-round cross-sectional data from the Survey of Older Persons in Thailand—collected in 2007, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021—this research calculates transition risks over consistent 3-year intervals and projects future trends for 2024, 2027, and 2030. A three-state multistate model, typically applied to longitudinal data, is adapted to cross-sectional data to estimate transition probabilities, excluding death as a state. The analysis also addresses health disparities by considering variations in socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. By identifying the heterogeneity in health transitions due to these variations, this study provides valuable insights for designing health and social services that not only meet the needs of Thailand’s rapidly aging population but also accommodate the diverse health trajectories within the elderly population.

Keywords: Health and Morbidity, Mortality and Longevity, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Data and Methods

See extended abstract.