Session 2216
Flash Session - Innovative Forecasting

Chair: Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

1. Forecasting Migration: A Model Averaging ApproachJesus Crespo Cuaresma, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU); Jakob Zellmann, Department of Statistical Sciences - University of Bologna; Juan Caballero, World Data Lab; Katharina Fenz, World Data Lab; Teodor Yankov, University of Oxford.

2. Calibrating Probabilistic Forecasts of Finnish Fertility on Past Forecast ErrorsRicarda Duerst, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Jonas Schöley, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Julia Hellstrand, University of Helsinki; Mikko Myrskylä, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

3. Accounting for Dependencies between Fertility and Mortality in Population ProjectionsEver Hughes, University of Toronto; Monica Alexander, University of Toronto; Radu Craiu, University of Toronto.

4. Forecasting Africa’s Fertility Decline by Female Education GroupsEndale Kebede, University of Vienna; Saroja Adhikari, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR); Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre.

5. Conditional Probabilistic Projections of Fertility Given Policy Intervention ScenariosDaphne Liu, University of Washington Department of Statistics; Vladimira Kantorova, United Nations; Mark Wheldon, United Nations Population Division; Patrick Gerland, United Nations Population Division.

6. Disaggregation of Net Migration to Improve Projections by Age and SexJames Raymer, Australian National University.

7. Determining the Scale, Pace, Drivers and Future Scenarios of Global Urban DepopulationFrancisco Rowe, University of Liverpool; Niall Newsham, University of California-santa Barbara.

8. Forecasting Density-Valued Functional Panel DataHanlin Shang, Macquarie University; Cristian Jimenez-Varon, University of York; Ying Sun, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.

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